Tue, 03:22 24 Mar 2009 GMT17

 

FACTBOX-Question marks over succession of Dalai Lama
10 Mar 2009 00:59:09 GMT
Source: Reuters
(For a related story, click [nDEL297356])

BEIJING, March 10 (Reuters) - The appointment of a successor to the 73-year-old Dalai Lama has become a looming issue for Tibetans struggling for more autonomy in China or outright independence, as the spiritual leader ages and his health declines.

Here is an overview of some of the key issues affecting the succession and some potential scenarios.

POWER VACUUM:

- Many Tibetans fear that the death of the Dalai Lama, who has lived in exile in India since fleeing a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959, could create a leadership vacuum that Beijing could exploit to tighten its grip over the restive Himalayan region.

- Others fear the loss of their most recognised leader could weaken the unity of the Tibetan movement, and potentially trigger widespread unrest in ethnic Tibetan regions across China. Many exiled Tibetans reject the Dalai Lama's "Middle Way" approach that advocates greater autonomy for Tibet within China, and have called for more aggressive confrontation with Beijing, even armed struggle.

TRADITIONAL SEARCH FOR SUCCESSOR:

- Tibetan Buddhism holds that the soul of a high monk or "living Buddha" is reborn after his death and the resulting "soul boy" can be found through the interpretation of arcane signs. In the past, court-appointed search parties have been charged with unearthing the successor to previous Dalai Lamas from among Tibetans.

- Past Dalai Lamas have often been found in remote, rural areas to buffer the institution from political infighting in the regional capital Lhasa. The current Dalai Lama was discovered in 1937 as a two-year-old in a village in Amdo, now a part of China's western province of Qinghai.

- The Dalai Lama has suggested his incarnation may be found outside China. A six-year-old boy anointed by the Dalai Lama in 1995 to succeed the late 10th Panchen Lama, Tibetan Buddhism's second most senior leader, disappeared from public view a year later. Human rights groups dubbed the child "the world's youngest political prisoner".

- A boy chosen by a search party would be trained in Buddhism until about 18, while one or more regents exercise leadership over the exiled Tibetan community.

APPOINTMENT:

- The Dalai Lama could choose a successor himself from among adults in his government in exile, or a college of senior lamas could also choose one from within its ranks. This would grant certainty but remove the mysticism of the traditional selection process.

ELECTION:

- The Dalai Lama has suggested it is up to Tibetans themselves whether they would like to continue with the spiritual institution after he dies, and could order an election among Tibetans abroad. Tibetans in China would not be able to vote.

DARK HORSES

- The Karmapa Lama, Tibetan Buddhism's third most senior figure, could become head of the exiled government. The current Karmapa Lama speaks Chinese and is recognised by both Beijing and the Dalai Lama. He fled into exile in India in 2000 to take his position from a rival claimant. [ID:nSP314674]

- Yabshi Pan Rinzinwangmo, the daughter of the 10th Panchen Lama, who died in 1989, could succeed the Dalai Lama based on popular support she inherited from her father after his death in 1989.

CHINA'S POSITION:

- Beijing maintains it alone will appoint the next successor to the Dalai Lama, and cites studies by scholars which contend Chinese imperial officials had a hand in choosing previous Dalai Lama incarnations prior to the fall of the Qing dynasty (1644-1911).

- China chose a rival incarnation to succeed the late 10th Panchen Lama shortly after the Dalai Lama announced his choice in 1995. China's Panchen Lama is spurned by most Tibetans as a fake. The whereabouts of the Dalai Lama-recognised Panchen Lama remain unknown. Chinese authorities in the past have insisted he is safe, healthy and wants his privacy.

(Reporting by Ian Ransom and Benjamin Kang Lim; Editing by Nick Macfie and Dean Yates)
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