By Richard Pullin

SYDNEY, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Asia-Pacific leaders are expected to sign a landmark statement on climate change on Saturday to set an "aspirational target" for greenhouse gas cuts at the start of their annual summit.

Security will also be at its tightest since the build-up to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum began a week ago, with thousands of protestors set to stage a march through the centre of Sydney.

The annual APEC summit that kicks off on Saturday brings together leaders from 21 regional economies, including U.S. President George Bush, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao for talks on issues including trade, Myanmar and North Korea.

Host Australian Prime Minister John Howard placed climate change at the top of the APEC agenda, seeking a post-Kyoto Protocol consensus to be called the "Sydney Declaration".

Asia-Pacific officials agreed on Friday to a draft climate statement which reaffirms a U.N. treaty on fighting global warming, while urging non-binding "aspirational targets" for greenhouse gas reductions, a delegate said.

But the climate statement, which has emerged after tough negotiations following a split between developing and developed members forum, remains to be agreed to by the leaders.

"Its a compromise statement," an Asian delegate at the APEC Sydney forum told Reuters, adding it reaffirms the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and backs "aspirational targets", proposed by Australia.

POST-KYOTO FRAMEWORK

At stake is a new framework for a climate change agreement after 2012 when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol expires. The Sydney declaration would commit such big polluters as China and the United States to a greenhouse emission target -- albeit unbinding ones -- for the first time.

Green groups have said the APEC leaders' summit would be a failure if it did not agree to binding greenhouse gas reduction targets.

Howard has pushed for "aspirational targets" and for each nation to set their own climate change goals.

About 5,000-10,000 protestors are expected to rally against the two-day leaders meeting in Sydney amid the tightest security the city has ever seen, well down on earlier estimates of up 20,000 demonstrators.

Protests have so far been small and peaceful, with 50 people turning up in a city park on Friday to bare their buttocks in a protest against Bush, compared with the 4,000 organised had hoped for.

Ahead of the start of Saturday's summit, Bush held a breakfast meeting with Howard and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. China has looked askance at these regular trilateral security meetings among the three countries fearing it could become a potential containment strategy.

As the three posed for pictures, Bush ignored a shouted question about the new video by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden which has surfaced on the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.

Bush will leave the summit early on Saturday night to return to the United States to prepare for a crucial report to the U.S. Congress on the conduct of the war in Iraq.

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